Sorry, the publication can not be displayed.

CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGEconomies of scale New research shows that investing in deep emissions cuts now makes sense because of higher marginal returns on investments later. Michiel Schaeffer explainsThe global financial crisis has induced a new split amongst the stakeholders at international climate negotiations. Whereas one group stresses that industries need to be spared too high a burden, the other side claims investments in greening the economy will help to reorder the economic system and accelerate a recovery, rather than slow it down. These two sides represent new arguments in a much older debate: to which level should investments rise to maximise the (marginal) returns by reducing the risk of unacceptable damages? Normally, this debate is dominated by the notion that costs rise slowly, but escalate once emission cuts get deeper. But new research findings from Wageningen university, the Netherlands environmental assessment agency and the how high investments need to be to reach a specific likelihood Potsdam institute for climate impact research (published in the that a temperature target (such as 2°C) will not be exceeded due ‘Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences’) show that, to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. for example, global costs rise by roughly 0.2 per cent of GDP When we include the characteristic response of global to lower a global concentration target by 100 parts per million mean temperatures, a counterbalancing effect emerges that by volume (ppmv) from 650 to 550 ppmv (CO2-equivalent), rapidly increases the probability of achieving a temperature but the additional cost surges to 0.6 per cent of GDP to reduce target, thereby offsetting the familiar exponential rise in concentrations by a further 100 ppmv. costs as concentrations are lowered. Effectively, we find that Although this picture is valid, there is no simple relacost increases are near-linear over a large range of probtion between concentrations and climate abilities of reaching various temperature damages driven by changes in temperatargets (see figure). Using the EU’s 2°C “So, in a sense, all of this is ture, precipitation, sea-level rise and target as an example, we find that initial bad news: doing a bit is hardly floods. This is one reason why the EU investments need to cross a threshold: effective. On the other hand, it’s modest increases in likelihood require has decided on a 2°C limit to global warming as a more appropriate guideline steep cost rises. By contrast, it’s the deep good news, because the really for developing mitigation policy. Shifting emission cuts at higher costs that give painful investments later on, the viewpoint to a target of temperature the most favourable, near-linear returns. of which the world is so afraid, change, a closer proxy for ‘real world’ Very high probabilities, however, remain impacts, introduces additional uncerdifficult to achieve. give much better returns” tainties linked to the climate system’s First-order estimates of the numbers response to greenhouse gas concentrations. It is this additional indicate it requires roughly 0.6 per cent of GDP to reach a 0.1 uncertainty that changes the very nature of the relation between per cent probability of achieving 2°C, and an additional 0.6 investments and returns. per cent of GDP to reach a 0.5 per cent likelihood. A rapid Because of the large (additional) uncertainties, a risk approach increase to a 0.9 per cent probability requires a further global seems appropriate. Luckily, risk management is common in such investment of 0.6 per cent of GDP, reaching a total of roughly diverse policy fields as public health, energy, infrastructure and two per cent of GDP. This is comparable to what the EU environment. Instead of asking oneself how much a specific currently spends on environmental policies, though it is to be concentration target would cost, one focuses on the question of implemented worldwide, of course.Returns on climate change mitigation investments (abatement costs) in terms of the probability that a previously determined policy target of 1.5, 2, or 2.5°C global warming are not exceeded. The dashed lines indicate the exponential extrapolation of cost estimates where literature data is scarce or missingMarch 2009 RESEARCH REVIEW 19 Issue 8 March 2009Mercury rising How science is mapping the threat of global warming How new technologies can save the world from environmental conflict Economies of scale: Michael Schaeffer counts the cost of adapting to climate change Nathan Gillett on how science proved that polar warming was man Following on from the success of the two previous conferences, EPIA the European Photovoltaic Industry Association is organising its 3 rd International Conference on Solar Photovoltaic Investments in partnership with the Deutsche Börse Group.This intensive conference in the financial city of Frankfu SOTERIA space weather project e live in an era when the concept of environment is enormously extended. It is not bound to the accessible terrestrial sites, oceans and atmosphere, but it also comprises the extraterrestrial environment including the Sun. What we observe in this expanded and dynamic en ROMANIAN SPACE AGENCY CONTENTS Issue 8 March 2009NEWS ANALYSIS 6 Marks out of 10 Scoring only “average” before the financial crisis hit, can European research now expect to compete on the world stage? Sarah Collins reports28 Ground controlJust after GMES got the go-ahead and funding for its second phase, Josef Aschbacher NEWS ANALYSIS | EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREAMarks out of 10 Scoring only “average” before the financial crisis hit, can European research now expect to compete on the world stage? Sarah Collins reportsIn January the European commission predicted that the EU’s GDP growth is likely to fall by 1.8 per cent i EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA | NEWS ANALYSISEuropean CommissionResearch commissioner Janez Poto?nikCzech it out: key events in the next six months March 5-6 21-27 24-25 25-26 Competitiveness council (Brussels) CHEP 2009 – Computing in high energy and nuclear physics (Prague) Research infrastructures and t NEWS ANALYSIS | SCIENCE AND SOCIETYThe questioning spirit Science has fallen from its pedestal, writes Federico García Moliner, and it’s time for it to emerge from academic limbo and forge a relationship with society cience is not always an indispensable requisite for creativity and innovation, but SCIENCE AND SOCIETY | NEWS ANALYSISScience has changed beyond recognition since Apollo 11 astronauts Neil Armstrong and Edwin E “Buzz” Aldrin became the first men to land on the moon in 1969Federico García Moliner is professor of contemporary science at Valencia’s Universitat Jaume IMarch 2009 RESEA Germany ?s Environment at a glance he German Environmental Information Web Portal PortalU® is more than two and a half years successfully online (www.portalu.de). The portal offers central access to public environmental information from federal and state level in Germany. PortalU® aims at establishi FOOD AND NUTRITION | NEWS ANALYSISHidden hunger Sarah Bucknall and Andrew Neal explain how developing new lines of nutrient-fortified wheat can help solve the world’s “hidden” food crisisAccording to the UK’s flour advisory bureau, bread is bought by 99 per cent of the nation’s households and 71 per NEWS ANALYSIS | HEALTHMoving picture Banafshe Larijani and her team at Cancer Research UK have created the first 3D movie of a cancer proteinThis was no ordinary challenge: a team of Cancer Research UK scientists wanted to crack the complete 3D structure of the important oncogene product, protein ki HEALTH | NEWS ANALYSISvisualise the way the protein functions in the cell. The first step was to genetically fuse two fluorescent probes to the PKB protein to measure the way the protein moves and changes shape in the cell. They used an imaging technique called two-photon fluorescence lifetime imagi NEWS ANALYSIS | HEALTHScanning electron microscopy of rodent bone marrowand others have shown that these are potent anti-inflammatory cells that can suppress the immune system. Currently, clinical trials in Europe are assessing the potential of using these cells to treat autoimmune diseases, such as NANOPOLIBAT Nanocomponents integrated in rechargeable microbatteries (2006-2009) Nanomaterial combinations could provide the performance required for miniaturised batteries to store solar energy and power smart cards Nano-particulate electrode materials, electrode materials modified by surface layer SMART THINKING | CLIMATE CHANGETalking about a revolution Are we heading for environmental war or will new technologies save the world? Sarah Collins takes a look at our climate futureImagine a world 20 years from now in which governments are frightening. “We expect the temperature differences monit CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKING??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ????? HydroNanoPol High Capacity nickel-metal hydride batteries could boost European industry (2006-2009) Polymer-coated hydride storage alloys increase battery capacity while solving production problems. The market for electrical storage batteries is a global battlefield in which European manufacturers a CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGEconomies of scale New research shows that investing in deep emissions cuts now makes sense because of higher marginal returns on investments later. Michiel Schaeffer explainsThe global financial crisis has induced a new split amongst the stakeholders at international SMART THINKING | CLIMATE CHANGEDr Michiel Schaeffer is with Wageningen University, the Netherlands, climate analytics and also works on the Prevent projectThe uncertainty in these numbers is very high. Using a large database of literature estimates of mitigation costs and estimates of the uncertaint CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGAn iceberg in Home Bay, Baffin Island, Nunavut, CanadaIn our recent study, published in ‘Nature Geoscience’, we used an up-to-date dataset of surface temperature measurements at land stations in both polar regions compiled at the university of East Anglia in the UK. Av ESONET Network of Excellence ESONET is an European Network of Excellence (NoE) associating 54 partners (research centres, universities, industrials and SMEs) from 14 countries: France, Germany, Italy, UK, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Bulgaria and Turkey CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGGoing to extremes Nicola Lugeri, Stefan Hochrainer and Reinhard Mechler are mapping the risks and costs of extreme weather events to help the EU adapt to climate changeThe EU adaptation and mitigation (ADAM) project, funded by the commission, conducts research leading SMART THINKING | CLIMATE CHANGEA collapsed farm house, ruined by the flood of the River Tisza, near Tiszaboeg, Hungary, in 2000“Almost all of the newest EU member states have a potential average annual damage due to floods higher than one per cent of the respective GDP” Analysts can estimate a 100-y CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGSea change A new FP7 funded project coordinated by the university of Ferrara will soon help to assess the risks and study the economic and social impact of future severe storm events, write Paolo Ciavola and Clara ArmaroliThe space given in FP7 to calls on topics relat geoland2: Operational Monitoring Services for our Changing Environment With the ongoing climate change, the pressure on nature, biodiversity and our own living conditions increases steadily. To mitigate these threats through effective counter measures and adaptation strategies, a frequent and area-w GMES/Kopernikus services: A new era starts Five new EU-funded projects mark the transition of the GMES/Kopernikus programme from the research to the operational phase. Frédéric Collomb reports. ver the past decade issues relating to the environment and security have become more important to Europe’s SMART THINKING | CLIMATE CHANGEGround control Just after GMES got the go-ahead and funding for its second phase, Josef Aschbacher told Sarah Collins about its flagship mission – the sentinelsS An artist’s impression of the Sentinel 1 satellite, due for launch in 2011ince 1992, global sea levels have CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKING2013, with the final two, Sentinels 4 and 5, to be launched around 2019. Using both radar and multispectral imaging (which can capture light beyond normal visibility, including infrared light), the sentinels don’t pretend to be anything new. “GMES is not about developi CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGThis is the sea Michele Stanley and Laila Sadler are looking out to sea for the next generation of biofuels, where the potential to exploit marine algae for energy could help solve the thorny food versus fuel debateNinety per cent of the world’s biofuel production is p CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGSkating on thin ice Hans Visser and Arthur Petersen describe the chances for holding outdoor ice skating competitions in the Netherlands – an odd but powerful indicator of climate changeFinding an indicator to predict the chances for holding large-scale outdoor skating SMART THINKING | CLIMATE CHANGEHans Visser and Arthur Petersen are researchers at the Netherlands environmental assessment agency (PBL) For further information contact Hans.Visser@pbl.nlmodel and the so-called Kalman filter. From the model, we derived the annual chances for indicator values of below Ivo Fridolin, Mart Min, Raimund UbarCEBE is one of the seven Estonian research excellence centres established last year supported by EU structural funds. It is based on three departments of Tallinn University of Technology: Computer Engineering, Electronics, Biomedical Engineering. CEBE is carrying EPAD EUROPEAN PUBLIC AFFAIRS DIRECTORYOne of the most comprehensive guides to names and addresses in Brussels, covering all the EU institutions, diplomatic and press corps, consultancies, trade associations and corporate headquarters.” Financial Times ... indispensable to specialists of European pub CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGCooling Europe with crops W ithout intervention, we may reach the atmospheric CO2 threshold beyond which the associated increases in temperature, sea-level, and the frequency and severity of droughts and storms may prove unmanageably costly and/or disruptive to society SMART THINKING | CLIMATE CHANGEWhat we are not being told Hans Labohm argues that experts’ warnings of an imminent climate catastrophe are products of computer modellingClimate change has become a major issue of our time. and grossly exaggerate the IPCC’s message with their warnWhile history clearly CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGWorld Temperatures Falling Whilst CO 2 Keeps Rising Hadley CRUT3v 1 MSU Satellite LowerTrop CO 2 390Climate preview 3850.8Temperature variation in o C0.6380Carbon Dioxide level in part per million by volumeArnulf Jaeger-Waldau previews the IPCC’s special report on rene UPDATING EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY EDUCATIONIt is important to understand the functions of familiar technological objectshe UPDATE http://update.jyu.fi/ is an ongoing multinational European project, in which 16 partners from 11 European countries aim to improve science and technology teaching in order to CLIMATE CHANGE | SMART THINKINGThe burning question Can CCS really help to reduce carbon emissions? Sarah Collins finds outAgroup of around 35 companies, think-tanks and national advisors from across Europe is currently embarking on an ambitious project to ‘recycle’ the CO2 produced by the power sec RESEARCH ICEBREAKER | FUTURE FORECASTPolar explorer The technical design of the Aurora Borealis research icebreaker was unveiled last December in Berlin. Research Review will be monitoring its progress until it begins operations in 2014 Visual impression of the planned Aurora Borealis, due to begin Consultancy for succeeding in Europe for your research projectswww.welcomeurope.com the portal to know everything on the Framework programme for research and development (FP7)Calls for proposals on FP7 Training specialised on FP7 Advice for any understanding on the FP7 Daily news of FP7 fundsTel: 33 MICROFLUIDICS | FUTURE FORECASTLabs on a chip Clemens Bechinger tells Sarah Collins how the ship-in-a-bottle technique has helped him revolutionise microfluidicsBSabri Rahmouni, University of StuttgartPumps teaming up and working together. In a magnetic field the microspheres (orange) form diamond-s POLITICS, POLICYAND PEOPLE@ ROBOTICS | FUTURE FORECAST ROBOTSAye, robot Service robots could soon be the norm, bringing us coffee and organising our homes, says Markus Vincze“The user only needs to show the robot its apartment once and indicate favourite places”Amobile robot that serves a cup of coffee, participates in your fa EUROPE MEETS AT THE RENAISSANCE With 10 years of experience, the Renaissance Brussels Hotel knows about Europe. Over the years we have hosted delegations from countries all over the Union, and like Europe, the Renaissance is constantly evolving. Our meeting rooms and our restaurant have recently bee European conference of the Czech Presidency of the Council of the EUwww.e-envi2009.org Opportunities of SEIS and SISE: Integrating Environmental Knowledge in Europe. March 25–27, 2009, Prague, Czech Republic Main topics for the conference will include: Main topics for the conference will include: IC L O C O M O T I V E S T H AT C O N S E R V E F U E L W H I L EREDUCING EMISSIONSON TRACKN O W. ENEHE ARGYH LTRANS TPO RTSous le haut patronage de Monsieur Nicolas Sarkozy, Président de la République françaiseDEFECED IT IO NHEMI5 E I QU PR ST Y°E NCNSTRSERVT UC IOS ICE3 5 JUNE 2009NFOD OIT-ICT...En partenariat avecOrganized byCON E W D AT E S • W E D N E S D AY T O F R I D AYVIPARIS pavillon