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agenda conservatives camerons kremlinology Feature story The Conservative leadership is adamant that the election is not in the bag but preparations are being made for the first Cameron cabinet, reports Sam Macrory In Manchester, Cameron felt confident enough to anoint some of his team: William Hague as our new British foreign secretary; Michael Gove to take charge of education; Chris Grayling and Dominic Grieve to tackle law and order; Theresa May to lead on work and pensions; Liam Fox seemingly handed the job of defence secretary-presumed. Hagues oratorical persuasiveness and popularity will be essential as the debate over Europe continues, while Gove is the trusted architect of the great education act promised by Cameron. The other recipients of apparent rubber-stamped positions were less obvious. Although Chris Grayling survived his gaffing reaction to General Sir Richard Dannatts appointment to the Tory ranks, his pugnacious style still seems more suited to opposition. Grieve is a deeper thinker, but lacks the public presence for such a high-profile role as home secretary. Dr Fox remains the rights darling: any lingering leadership ambitions could overshadow his future, and the suggestion from General Sir Richard that Cameron felt his defence team lacked expert understanding is hardly a ringing endorsement. As such an integral part of Camerons inner circle, George Osborne didnt require a name-check. He is considered to be an untouchable. So too is Andrew Lansley, the long-serving shadow health secretary, but at conference Cameron praised Lansleys reforms, not his performance. Some unchecked announcements on Conservative spending policy, and a famously blundering performance on Question Time, have not impressed the hierarchy. Michael Brown, the former Tory whip-turned-pundit, suggests Camerons first cabinet might be one of the most predictable cabinets based on the current shadow portfolios. George Osborne, William Hague and Liam Fox are absolutely guaranteed their current posts, as are Andrew Lansley and Michael Gove, Brown tells The House Magazine. A question mark might now surround Chris Grayling after the fall in his party conference share price. Frankly, Dominic Grieve or Edward Garnier would be safer bets for the Home Office. Francis Maude and Oliver Letwin are obvious candidates for the behind-the-scenes delivery roles in the Cabinet Office too. Tim Montgomerie, the editor of ConservativeHome, believes there is a smaller pool of certainties, with just four people absolutely guaranteed to make Camerons top team. George Osborne is the tactical brain of the Cameron project. William Hague is the grassroots favourite. Michael Gove is bearer of the flagship policy agenda. Oliver Letwin is the intellectual Gandalf. Each are indispensable in different ways, Montgomerie explains. Outside of that four we can be pretty sure that particularly important roles will fall to Liam Fox, Greg Clark, Jeremy Hunt and Philip Hammond. There is no mention for Eric Pickles, your chum and mine according to Cameron, who reaches parts of the electorate that most Tories cant, while neither Brown nor Montgomerie name Kenneth Clarke, one of just three shadow cabinet members along with Hague and Sir George Young with cabinet experience. Clarke would be 70 if he made cabinet. Viscount Hailsham, Margaret Thatchers lord chancellor, was the last cabinet minister to serve at that grand age. hatever you do, dont talk about being the next government. The instruction from on high at the Conservative Partys annual conference a fortnight ago was drummed home with Basil Fawltyish paranoia, and any high-spirited back-slapping in Manchester was kept firmly in the hotel closet. Take nothing for granted is the party mantra, but as the general election campaign approaches, minds not least those of the 32 members of the shadow cabinet will wander to the day after polling. David Camerons leaders speech at conference was light on policy, but for the job-hungry members of his team and the speculation-thirsty press pack he offered some tentative answers to a question asked with ever-increasing frequency: if he wins, who will be in his first cabinet? Gordon Brown has 23 full cabinet-level ministers, and Cameron himself is an advocate of smaller government. Axes are being sharpened. W Three wise men There are just three members of David Camerons top team who served in the last Conservative cabinet. William Hague spent the last two years of John Majors government as Welsh secretary. Four largely frustrating years as leader of the opposition followed, before Hague took a four-year sabbatical from frontline politics to take up speech-making and book-writing. Before returning to the front line earlier this year, Kenneth Clarke (left), the last Conservative chancellor, spent 12 years occasionally intervening from the back benches and competing in, and losing, three successive Conservative leadership battles. Sir George Young, the last to rejoin the shadow cabinet, replacing Alan Duncan as shadow leader of the House in September, was transport secretary from 1995 to 1997. He then served in the shadow cabinet until 2000, when his Speakership ambitions took him to the back benches. 20 The House Magazine 19 october 2009 The parliamentary weekly No 1318 Vol 34 October 19, 2009 Branching out Profile: Forest of dean MP Mark Harper my week Wales Office minister Wayne David policy focus Environment, food and rural affairs win tickets to David Hares new play Electronic Training Collars the welfare implications Defra is researching the welfare implications of e-collars and is due to report its findings in 2010 or 2011. This is what we found from a survey of collar owners: of those questioned said their pet was either happy with, or neutral about, the col No 1318 Vol 34 19 October 2009 The House Magazine offers an online political news and information service at ePolitix.com Publisher Gerry Murray Managing Editor Richard Hall Features Editor Sam Macrory Chief Sub-editor Andrew Schofield Head of Production Jearelle Wolhuter Special Projects Editor S people people commons diary 6 Commons Diary Wayne David Arriving at the House, I immediately sense the feeling of anticipation in the air 8 Lords Diary Lord Tyler I am sure that, had he remained leader of the Commons, Robin Cook would have achieved a real clean-up 10 Profile Mark Harper I think it i people commons diary Sunday 11 October In traditional, non-conformist Wales, this is supposed to be the day of rest. Not for government ministers. Much of the day is spent going through the ubiquitous red box, trying to work out which are the more important papers as I go along. In the afternoon, I people lords diary hail fellow not so well met Saturday 10 October My wife and I are trying to cut down on our carbon footprint, so we have chosen to travel by Eurostar and TGV in both directions: Perpignan to St Pancras via Lille in about 10 hours; rather more expensive than Ryanair, but so much mo Were the UKs biggest manufacturing sector You may be surprised to hear that the food and drink sector is the UKs biggest manufacturing industry, offering world class capabilities in areas of production, logistics, sales, marketing and innovation. Here some other facts you should know: We directly em people profile forest lodge for a fast learner My story Forest of Dean MP Mark Harper was quick to get front bench recognition in David Camerons Conservatives and now hopes to convert opposition expertise into ministerial action The Forest of Dean is an area which I absolutely love, and once I got people profile Being an MP is not a job or a career, and anybody who thinks that it is shouldnt really be doing it 19 12 october 2009 The House Magazine 11 people profile similarity on welfare reform policy. Labour has had 12 years and hasnt done very much, and there is a big opportunity for us, if were fortunate enough to come into government, to really do that job properly. Iain Duncan Smiths proposals on welfare are very interesting and detailed, an YOUR SUPER-FIT CAN Its no accident that metal cans are the sustainability force they are today. Over the past two decades, some 500 million has been invested in metals environmental credentials probably more than any other packaging material, and with stunning results. Todays can is 35 lighter, but agenda agenda pollwatch/bill briefing 14 Week in Westminster MPs expenses 15 Pollwatch The economy 15 Bill briefing Coroners and Justice Bill 16 Commons Gallery 18 Lords Gallery 20 Feature story Shadow cabinet with auditing MPs accounting skills, has infuriated many with his decision to impose a ret agenda pollwatch/bill briefing October 19-23, key events Monday: Work and pensions questions (Commons) Tuesday: Treasury select committee session on women in the City. Harriet Harman among the witnesses Wednesday: Human Fertilisation and Embryology (Statutory Storage Period for Embryos and Gametes agenda commons gallery Sam Macrory reports on proceedings in the Commons chamber and committee corridor Asset sales Cable comes unstuck spending. The point was rather lost when Hammond accidentally accused the government of attempting to sell off the Tate an error seized on by excitable Labour MPs agenda commons gallery PMQs No careless talk: theres a war on In brief Tobacco A Conservative attempt to block government plans to ban the display of tobacco products and advertising in shops across England was defeated by 288 votes to 180 last Tuesday. Shadow health minister Mike Penning said the agenda lords gallery Andrew Evans rounds-up the latest news from the upper chamber Lords ministers Gaps in the ministerial ranks Crossbenchers Judges and unionists quit cross benches T B aroness Kinnock of Holyhead (above, with Eddie Izzard and husband Lord Kinnock), who joined the government in Jun agenda lords gallery Investigation Lord Pauls expenses probe In brief Appointment Colonel Ted Lloyd-Jukes, formerly the Lords administration officer, is the new Yeoman Usher of the Black Rod, following the retirement of Brigadier Hedley Duncan. Ports Ministers were defeated on Wednesday when pee agenda conservatives camerons kremlinology Feature story The Conservative leadership is adamant that the election is not in the bag but preparations are being made for the first Cameron cabinet, reports Sam Macrory In Manchester, Cameron felt confident enough to anoint some of his team: William Hag agenda conservatives Clarke wants a role, and if the business brief is deemed too sprawling, then perhaps the role of lord chancellor might be more likely. Other shadow cabinet members failed to appear in the speech, with Caroline Spelman, Cheryl Gillan, Theresa Villiers, Andrew Mitchell and Jeremy policy currently food-secure our food supply is diverse, we produce a significant proportion of it here in the UK, and we have a strong distribution system. However, we live in an interconnected world, where the price of soya in Brazil affects the price of steak at our local supermarket. We need to policy defra Sustenance and sustainability commodities to feed livestock. The backdrop against which this demand must be met is one of rising global temperatures, dwindling water resources, and more severe and frequent weather events. While climate change could offer northern Europe more favourable policy defra food security begins at home question, that the UK was in a secure position in terms of food. Yet a subsequent question showed that only 60 per cent of all food consumed in the UK was domestically produced and, even when discounting products that are not indigenous, the figure was still policy defra no stability on an empty belly World Food Day Farming expertise is key to reducing hunger in sub-Saharan Africa and Britain has a role to play, say David Curry and Ronan Keating also being eroded by the global recession, as the declining incomes of the poorest cannot compete with escala NESTLÉ MAKES CHRISTMAS SELECTION BOXES MORE RECYCLABLE AND APPEALING T The boxes are available in three innovative, eye-catching and targeted formats; a Santa themed selectionandpolar bear themed selectionfor mums buying for younger children, and a larger box designed for a broader demographic. Each policy defra when cocooning isnt caring Wasted resources here in the UK are either left to fester in landfill sites, or burned in incinerators that pollute the air and produce damaging emissions. Neither of these solutions is remotely sustainable. Friends of the Earth recently published research whi policy defra more than a change of topsoil be there to take care of any domestic glitches in food supply. Responding to these events, the UN convened a World Food Security conference at which secretary-general Ban Ki-moon predicted food production would need to increase by 50 per cent by 2030 to mee SCOTTISH SALMON FARMING: A SUCCESS STORY 500 MILLION INJECTED INTO THE ECONOMY 84 MILLION OVER THE LAST IN CAPITAL PROJECTS DURING 2008 THREE YEARS 500 INCREASE LAST 20 YEARS IN EXPORTS IN THE 304 MILLION EXPENDITURE SERVICES IN 2008 ON SUPPLIERS AND Salmon farming is a vital contributor to the Sco meeting the food security challenge Protecting UK farming from exotic diseases Exotic animal diseases increasingly threaten UK livestock farming. In 2007 bluetongue reached East Anglia. Research by the Institute for Animal Health informed the Government response and mitigated the diseases impact. Sc policy defra Housing needs going west nowhere is this failure more obvious than in Cornwall. For decades, Cornish people have had to contend with the twin problems of some of the UKs lowest wages and high local house prices. It has one of the largest affordability problems in the country. This has c 104 elephants are killed every day. Help stop the ivory trade. 38,000 elephants are slaughtered every year to supply the worlds illegal ivory trade. After a steep decline in poaching following the 1989 ban on all ivory sales, poaching is skyrocketing again after a handful of southern African countri policy defra no amnesty for butchery the two defeated the authorities. Only a complete ban would do. And so it is with the trade in ivory. In July 2008 I wrote to Joan Ruddock, then the Defra minister with a seat at the relevant EU table, to seek an assurance that the British government would use it 2009 is the Year of Food Food and food security are right back on the political agenda. Dr Brian Iddon MP and Mr Mark Lancaster TD MP invite you to attend a reception to mark Along with energy, water, and climate change food Royal Society of Chemistrys the chemical sciences is how to create and the policy defra compassion at the checkout 2007 and also European legislation in place. The Treaty of Amsterdam contains a legally binding protocol recognising that animals are sentient beings, and requires that full regard be paid to their welfare when policies relating to agriculture are formulated o policy defra inundation action stations through the night to build a mile- long wall of sandbags to protect the 1,000 homes in the Leeman Road area of the city, where water threatened the flood defences. A 24-hour information helpline was set up, and two community centres were opened up to provide t comment 37 Waddington amendment Lord Dear 38 Medical research Lord McColl of Dulwich 39 Cobbetts Corner Chris Moncrieff Waddington amendment Removing free speech protection from a new incitement law will put the police in a virtual straitjacket, says Lord Dear T he government will soon decide whethe comment heal th Testing conditions T Medical research Human tissues are invaluable for medical research, and we should work to make them more available, says Lord McColl of Dulwich he pressing need for human tissues and organs for transplant has, quite rightly, received much attention. A related iss comment cobbetts corner Chris Moncrieff offers his take on the world of Westminster Never mind the meat, give us the ham The prime minister delivered a make or break speech at the Labour Party conference. 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