Trophic interactions shape ciguatera
risk in a warming ocean
Ciguatera is one of the most widespread
marine poisonings worldwide, caused
by the consumption of fish that bioaccumulate ciguatoxins (CTXs) produced
by dinoflagellate species belonging to
the genus Gambierdiscus. Its expansion
into non-endemic regions reflects the
combined influence of climate change
and the globalization of seafood trade
[1]. Sea surface temperature acts as a
primary large-scale constraint regulating Gambierdiscus growth (optimum
29 C), while species composition ultimately modulates toxicity and outbreak
intensity. However, this relationship is
nonlinear, with thermal thresholds and
climatic variability (e.g. ENSO) limiting
straightforward predictions [2].
Beyond
environmental
drivers,
mounting evidence indicates that ciguatera occurrence is strongly shaped by
the taxonomic composition of Gambierdiscus, given the pronounced interspecific variability in toxicity [3].
Within marine food webs, CTXs are
progressively amplified, concentrating
risk at higher trophic levels [4]. At the
physiological level, these toxins disrupt ion channel function, increasing
neuronal excitability and underpinning
the predominance and persistence of
neurological symptoms [5]. Together,
these processes connect organismal
toxicity mechanisms with ecosystemlevel transfer dynamics. Ciguatera thus
emerges as a multiscale phenomenon
driven by the interaction between climate forcing, microalgal diversity, and
trophic structure.
Addressing this complexity requires
conceptual and quantitative frameworks capable of isolating key mechanisms. In this context, a mathematical
model of ciguatoxin transfer was developed as part of a masters thesis at
the Universidad Nacional de Colombia.
To isolate the trophic dimension, the
model adopts a predatorprey framework with a Holling type I functional
response, coupling population dynamics and toxin fluxes through a system of
ordinary differential equations. Rather
than explicitly incorporating climate
variability, the model focuses on the
trophic processes that regulate toxin
amplification under given environmen12
tal conditions [6]. Both analytical and
numerical results demonstrate that
toxin accumulation is not solely driven
by the presence of toxic microalgae. Instead, it emerges from the interaction
between trophic structure and population dynamics. System stability, by
controlling population persistence and
interaction strength, plays a central role
in regulating toxin retention and amplification across trophic levels. The model exhibits multiple equilibrium states,
although only a subset is ecologically
meaningful. Simulations further show
that relatively small shifts in population structure can trigger contrasting
toxin accumulation regimes, providing
a mechanistic basis for the emergence
of ciguatera outbreaks.
Beyond its theoretical contribution,
this framework reframes ciguatera as
an emergent property of trophic systems. By explicitly linking toxin trans-
fer to ecological interactions, it offers
a pathway from reactive monitoring
toward predictive understanding. In
this sense, the model can be viewed as
a conceptual prototype of a risk simulator grounded in trophic ecology, capable of identifying conditions under
which ciguatoxins are likely to amplify
through food webs (Fig. 1).
This perspective opens new avenues for management. By identifying key trophic pathways and species
that disproportionately contribute to
toxin magnification, the model can inform targeted consumption advisories
and risk-based fisheries management.
When coupled with environmental
data, it also provides a foundation for
spatial risk mapping and early warning
systems, particularly in reef ecosystems
subject to disturbance.
A key next step is to move from this
simplified framework toward a datainformed, operational tool. This will
require incorporating nonlinear trophic
interactions, expanding food web complexity, and integrating environmental
Fig. 1. Conceptual model: Ciguatoxin transfer in marine food webs.
HARMFUL ALGAE NEWS NO. 83 / 2026
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Fig. 2. (AB). Fukuyoa sp. in ventral view. (C). Dorsal view. (D). Antapical view showing plates S. d. p., 1, 1. (EF). Ventral view showing plates 1, 1,2, 7, S. d. p., 1,1. (GH). Antapical view showing plates 1p,2,3, 1, 2. Scale bars = 20 μm. in Australia [6] recorded F. paulensis at temperatures of
Trophic interactions shape ciguatera risk in a warming ocean Ciguatera is one of the most widespread marine poisonings worldwide, caused by the consumption of fish that bioaccumulate ciguatoxins (CTXs) produced by dinoflagellate species belonging to the genus Gambierdiscus. Its expansion into non-en
drivers such as temperature variability and habitat disturbance. Calibration and validation with empirical data on cell densities, toxin concentrations, and ecosystem dynamics will be essential to generate robust predictions. The inclusion of spatial structure and coupling with human health risk mod
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